Analyzing the History of NBA Lottery Selections

Updated: 6/24/2011 with 2011 NBA Draft Picks

In 1985 both the NBA and NHL chose to determine part of their league’s draft orders through a lottery.  Thus the term “lottery selection” was coined.  I decided with the NBA Draft airing tonight, it would be an proper time to publish some numbers related to NBA lottery selections you might not see elsewhere.

Check out below to see a quick rundown of every NBA team’s history with lottery selections.

Legend: # Lot Sel (Number of lottery selections), Pct. (Percentage of all lottery selections), Avg Lot Sel (The average lottery selection).

Rk	Team	# Lot Sel	Pct.	Avg Lot Sel	Highest Lot Sel Ever
1	Clippers	22	7.2%	5.5	1- 1988, 1998, 2009
2	Warriors	19	6.2%	7.4	1 – 1995
3t	Kings	16	5.2%	7.1	1 – 1989
3t	Timberwolves	16	5.2%	5.5	2 – 2011
5t	Bucks	14	4.6%	7.6	1 – 1994, 2005
5t	Cavaliers	14	4.6%	7.2	1 – 1986, 2003, 2011
7t	Grizzlies	13	4.2%	5.0	2 – 1998, 1999, 2000, 2009
7t	Raptors	13	4.2%	6.6	1 – 2006
9t	76ers	12	3.9%	5.8	1 – 1996
9t	Hawks	12	3.9%	6.7	2 – 2005
9t	Magic	12	3.9%	7.7	1 – 1992, 1993, 2004
9t	Nets	12	3.9%	5.5	1 – 1990, 2000
9t	Thunder/Sonics	12	3.9%	7.5	2 – 1990, 2007
9t	Wizards/Bullets	12	3.9%	5.9	1 – 2001, 2010
15t	Bulls	11	3.6%	4.2	1 – 1999, 2008
15t	Celtics	11	3.6%	7.3	2 – 1986
17t	Hornets	10	3.3%	6.9	1 – 1991
17t	Mavericks	10	3.3%	7.0	2 – 1994
19t	Nuggets	9	2.9%	5.0	3 – 1990, 1998, 2003
19t	Pacers	9	2.9%	7.9	2 – 1985, 1988
21t	Bobcats	8	2.6%	7.6	2 – 2004
21t	Pistons	8	2.6%	7.6	2 – 2003
21t	Suns	8	2.6%	8.4	2 – 1987
24t	Heat	7	2.3%	6.4	2 – 2008
24t	Knicks	7	2.3%	6.3	1 – 1985
24t	Rockets	7	2.3%	10.0	1 – 2002
27t	Trail Blazers	6	2.0%	7.5	1 – 2007
27t	Jazz	6	2.0%	9.2	3 – 2005, 2011
29	Spurs	3	1.0%	1.7	1 – 1987, 1997
30	Lakers	2	0.7%	10.0	10 – 1994, 2005

• No surprise that the Los Angeles Clippers lead the league in all-time lottery selections (22).  The Clippers have had 11 times the lottery selections of fellow L.A. NBA team, the Los Angeles Lakers.

• The Clippers had a streak of eight drafts (1998-2005) in which they had a lottery selection.  However that isn’t the record.  The Memphis Grizzlies had  lottery selections in nine straight drafts (1995-2003) in two different cities (Vancouver).

• The San Antonio Spurs have only had three lottery selections, however two of those were first overall selections. Giving them the highest average lottery pick (1.7) in NBA history.  The Chicago Bulls follow with an average lottery pick of 4.2.

• The Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Clippers, and Orlando Magic have selected with the #1 pick on three occasions in the lottery era draft.

• The Cleveland Cavaliers are the only team in the history of the lottery era draft to select twice in the top five selections of one draft (2011 – #1 & #4).  Listed below is every instance in which one team had two or more lottery selections in the same draft.

Team	Year	Pk	Player
Clippers	1988	1	Danny Manning
	1988	6	Hersey Hawkins
Nuggets	1991	4	Dikembe Mutombo
	1991	8	Mark Macon
Pistons	1993	10	Lindsey Hunter
	1993	11	Allan Houston
Celtics	1997	3	Chauncey Billups
	1997	6	Ron Mercer
Magic	1998	12	Michael Doleac
	1998	13	Keon Clark
Cavaliers	1999	8	Andre Miller
	1999	11	Trajan Langdon
Raptors	1999	5	Jonathan Bender
	1999	12	Aleksandar Radojevic
Bulls	2000	4	Marcus Fizer
	2000	7	Chris Mihm
Magic	2000	5	Mike Miller
	2000	10	Keyon Dooling
	2000	13	Courtney Alexander
Celtics	2001	10	Joe Johnson
	2001	11	Kedrick Brown
Clippers	2002	8	Chris Wilcox
	2002	12	Melvin Ely
Bobcats	2005	5	Raymond Felton
	2005	13	Sean May
Hawks	2007	3	Al Horford
	2007	11	Acie Law
Timberwolves	2009	5	Ricky Rubio
	2009	6	Jonny Flynn
Cavaliers	2011	1	Kyrie Irving
	2011	4	Tristan Thompson
Jazz	2011	3	Enes Kanter
	2011	12	Alec Burks

The undisputable fact is that most NBA stars are found with lottery selections. A little over 74% of first/second/third team NBA All-Pro selections (drafted since 1985), were drafted with lottery selections.  Steve Nash and Karl Malone are the only players drafted during the lottery era draft, to be named NBA MVP, and to not have been a lottery selection.

A little under 76% of NBA first team All-Rookie selections since 1985 were lottery selections.  Mark Jackson is the only non-lottery selection since 1985 to be named Rookie of the Year.

Only ten lottery selections have gone on to win an NBA title with the team that selected them.

Year	Pk	Team	Player
1998	10	Celtics	Paul Pierce
1989	6	Bulls	Stacey King
1994	2	Mavericks	Jason Kidd
2003	2	Pistons	Darko Milicic
1992	11	Rockets	Robert Horry
2005	10	Lakers	Andrew Bynum
2003	5	Heat	Dwyane Wade
1987	1	Spurs	David Robinson
1989	3	Spurs	Sean Elliott
1997	1	Spurs	Tim Duncan

Duke has produced the most lottery selections (16), although 38 lottery selections didn’t go to college.

Rk	College	# Lot Sel	Pct.	Avg Lot Sel
-	No College	38	11.8%	6.9
1	Duke	16	5.0%	6.2
2	North Carolina	15	4.7%	7.0
3	Kansas	12	3.7%	9.4
4t	Arizona	11	3.4%	7.5
4t	Connecticut	11	3.4%	6.3
6	Kentucky	10	3.1%	6.5
7	Georgetown	8	2.5%	4.1
8t	Georgia Tech	7	2.2%	5.4
8t	Michigan	7	2.2%	5.9
8t	UNLV	7	2.2%	7.4
11t	Memphis	6	1.9%	4.5
11t	Syracuse	6	1.9%	4.8
11t	Texas	6	1.9%	5.3
14t	Arkansas	5	1.6%	10.2
14t	Florida	5	1.6%	6.2
14t	Louisville	5	1.6%	8.2
14t	LSU	5	1.6%	4.8
14t	Maryland	5	1.6%	4.0
14t	Ohio St	5	1.6%	2.8
14t	UCLA	5	1.6%	6.4

 

In 2005 North Carolina had four players selected with lottery picks in the same draft.  The most lottery selections from any school in one draft.

Pk	Team	Player
2	Hawks	Marvin Williams
5	Bobcats	Raymond Felton
13	Bobcats	Sean May
14	Timberwolves	Rashad McCants

• Duke (Elton Brand & Kyrie Irving) and Georgetown (Patrick Ewing & Allen Iverson) are the only schools to have produced two #1 picks in the lottery era draft.

• A little over 20% of lottery selections, were coming off of a season in which they helped lead their school to an appearance in the NCAA Tournament Final Four.

• Every Final Four since 1988 has produced at least one lottery selection in the following NBA draft.

One more interesting stat line:

Lottery selections average 11.5 points per game, 4.8 rebounds/gm, 2.2 assists/gm, 0.8 steals/gm, and 0.6 blocks/gm in their careers.


Reference: Be sure to check out Pro-Basketball-Reference’s Draft Finder.  It’s a great utility which allows you to dig deep into the history of the NBA draft.   Award information also retrieved from Pro-Basketball-Reference.