College Football: Great Turnarounds and Collapses

Last season the Texas Longhorns had their greatest collapse in school history.  Texas went from 13-1 to 5-7.  Texas also became the first BCS Championship Game participant, to fail to make a bowl game the next season.

Previously the greatest collapse in Texas school history occurred in 1956, when Texas went from 5-5 in 1955 to 1-9.  Texas would bounce back with a 6-4-1 record in 1957, giving them their second greatest turnaround in winning percentage in school history.

I thought it would be interesting to see each current FBS school’s greatest turnaround, and greatest collapse in winning percentage in the last 50 years (only includes years as an FBS member).

Turnarounds

Legend: Since (Year the school joined the FBS level (current stint), or the default 50 years at the FBS level (1961)), W Pct+ (One season gain in winning percentage), Avg Impv (Average gain in winning percentage during a season of improvement)

Since	School	From		To	+W Pct	Avg Impv
1961	Air Force	1967: 2-6-2		1968: 7-3	0.400	0.179
1987	Akron	1998: 4-7		1999: 7-4	0.272	0.165
1961	Alabama	1970: 6-5-1		1971: 11-1	0.375	0.188
1961	Arizona	1967: 3-6-1		1968: 8-3	0.377	0.143
1961	Arizona St	1974: 7-5		1975: 12-0	0.417	0.199
1961	Arkansas	1963: 5-5		1964: 11-0	0.500	0.201
1990	Arkansas St	1994: 1-10		1995: 6-5	0.454	0.161
1961	Army	1983: 2-9		1984: 8-3-1	0.526	0.199
1961	Auburn	1992: 5-5-1		1993: 11-0	0.500	0.183
1975	Ball St	1999: 0-11		2000: 5-6	0.455	0.162
1961	Baylor	1973: 2-9		1974: 8-4	0.485	0.198
1996	Boise St	2005: 9-4		2006: 13-0	0.308	0.163
1961	Boston College	1978: 0-11		1979: 5-6	0.455	0.171
1962	Bowling Green St	2000: 2-9		2001: 8-3	0.545	0.173
1999	Buffalo	2006: 2-10		2007: 5-7	0.250	0.142
1961	BYU	1968: 2-8		1969: 6-4	0.400	0.174
1961	California	2001: 1-10		2002: 7-5	0.492	0.217
1996	Central Florida	2004: 0-11		2005: 8-5	0.615	0.303
1975	Central Michigan	1997: 2-9		1998: 6-5	0.363	0.153
1961	Cincinnati	1992: 3-8		1993: 8-3	0.454	0.221
1961	Clemson	1980: 6-5		1981: 12-0	0.455	0.191
1961	Colorado	1964: 2-8		1965: 6-2-2	0.500	0.233
1961	Colorado St	1988: 1-10		1989: 5-5-1	0.409	0.207
2000	Connecticut	2006: 4-8		2007: 9-4	0.359	0.309
1961	Duke	1993: 3-8		1994: 8-4	0.394	0.174
1965	East Carolina	1990: 5-6		1991: 11-1	0.462	0.177
1975	Eastern Michigan	1976: 2-9		1977: 8-3	0.545	0.166
1961	Florida	1979: 0-10-1		1980: 8-4	0.622	0.138
2004	Florida Atlantic	2005: 2-9		2006: 5-7	0.235	0.217
2004	Florida Intl	2007: 1-11		2008: 5-7	0.334	0.215
Since	School	From		To	+W Pct	Avg Impv
1961	Florida St	1963: 4-5-1		1964: 9-1-1	0.414	0.148
1969	Fresno St	1981: 5-6		1982: 11-1	0.462	0.193
1961	Georgia	1979: 6-5		1980: 12-0	0.455	0.214
1961	Georgia Tech	1981, 1994: 1-10		1982, 1995: 6-5	0.454	0.174
1974	Hawaii	1998: 0-12		1999: 9-4	0.692	0.248
1961	Houston	1975: 2-8		1976: 10-2	0.633	0.215
1996	Idaho	2008: 2-10		2009: 8-5	0.448	0.190
1961	Illinois	1962: 2-7		1963: 8-1-1	0.628	0.253
1961	Indiana	1966: 1-8-1		1967: 9-2	0.668	0.162
1961	Iowa	1967: 1-8-1		1968: 5-5	0.350	0.174
1961	Iowa St	2003: 2-10		2004: 7-5	0.416	0.222
1961	Kansas	2006: 6-6		2007: 12-1	0.423	0.195
1961	Kansas St	1989: 1-10		1990: 5-6	0.364	0.153
1962	Kent St	2000: 1-10		2001: 6-5	0.454	0.183
1961	Kentucky	1982: 0-10-1		1983: 6-5-1	0.497	0.183
1988	Louisiana Tech	2000: 3-9		2001: 7-5	0.333	0.161
1962	Louisville	1964: 1-9		1965: 6-4	0.500	0.209
1961	LSU	1999: 3-8		2000: 8-4	0.394	0.174
1997	Marshall	2000: 8-5		2001: 11-2	0.231	0.134
1961	Maryland	2009: 2-10		2010: 9-4	0.525	0.179
1961	Memphis	1982: 1-10		1983: 6-4-1	0.500	0.199
1961	Miami (FL)	1979: 5-6		1980: 9-3	0.295	0.144
1962	Miami (OH)	1976: 3-8		1977: 10-1	0.636	0.236
1961	Michigan	1963: 3-4-2		1964: 9-1	0.456	0.161
1961	Michigan St	1964: 4-5		1965: 10-1	0.465	0.168
1999	Mid Tennessee St	2008: 5-7		2009: 10-3	0.352	0.220
1961	Minnesota	2007: 1-11		2008: 7-6	0.455	0.188
1961	Mississippi	2007: 3-9		2008: 9-4	0.442	0.167
1961	Mississippi St	1979: 3-8		1980: 9-3	0.477	0.213
1961	Missouri	1971: 1-10		1972: 6-6	0.409	0.135
Since	School	From		To	+W Pct	Avg Impv
1961	Navy	2002: 2-10		2003: 8-5	0.448	0.174
1961	Nebraska	1961: 3-6-1		1962: 9-2	0.468	0.135
1992	Nevada	2004: 5-7		2005: 9-3	0.333	0.146
1961	New Mexico	1981: 4-7-1		1982: 10-1	0.534	0.157
1961	New Mexico St	1991: 2-9		1992: 6-5	0.363	0.170
1961	North Carolina	1962: 3-7		1963: 9-2	0.518	0.207
1961	North Carolina St	1971, 1985: 3-8		1972, 1986: 8-3-1	0.435	0.206
1995	North Texas	1995: 2-9		1996: 5-6	0.273	0.127
1968	Northern Illinois	1982: 5-5		1983: 10-2	0.333	0.186
1961	Northwestern	1994: 3-7-1		1995: 10-2	0.515	0.174
1961	Notre Dame	1963: 2-7		1964: 9-1	0.678	0.193
1962	Ohio	1965: 0-10		1966: 5-5	0.500	0.218
1961	Ohio St	2001: 7-5		2002: 14-0	0.417	0.153
1961	Oklahoma	1999: 7-5		2000: 13-0	0.417	0.132
1961	Oklahoma St	1991: 0-10-1		1992: 4-6-1	0.364	0.163
1961	Oregon	2004: 5-6		2005: 10-2	0.378	0.133
1961	Oregon St	1999: 7-5		2000: 11-1	0.334	0.144
1961	Penn St	2004: 4-7		2005: 11-1	0.553	0.177
1961	Pittsburgh	1972: 1-10		1973: 6-5-1	0.451	0.182
1961	Purdue	1996: 3-8		1997: 9-3	0.477	0.143
1961	Rice	2007: 3-9		2008: 10-3	0.519	0.233
1961	Rutgers	1997: 0-11		1998: 5-6	0.455	0.217
1969	San Diego St	1971: 6-5		1972: 10-1	0.364	0.171
1961	San Jose St	1985: 2-8-1		1986: 10-2	0.606	0.171
1961	SMU	2008: 1-11		2009: 8-5	0.532	0.214
1961	South Carolina	1999: 0-11		2000: 8-4	0.667	0.178
2000	South Florida	2005: 6-6		2006: 9-4	0.192	0.128
1963	Southern Miss	1976, 1993: 2-9, 2-8-1		1977, 1994: 6-6, 6-5	0.318	0.158
1961	Stanford	1960: 0-10		1961: 4-6	0.400	0.194
1961	Syracuse	1986: 5-6		1987: 11-0-1	0.503	0.194
Since	School	From		To	+W Pct	Avg Impv
1961	TCU	1997: 1-10		1998: 7-5	0.492	0.186
1971	Temple	1989: 1-10		1990: 7-4	0.545	0.186
1961	Tennessee	1988: 5-6		1989: 11-1	0.462	0.162
1961	Texas	1976: 5-5-1		1977: 11-1	0.417	0.168
1961	Texas A&M	1984: 6-5		1985: 10-2	0.288	0.157
1961	Texas Tech	1962: 1-9		1963: 5-5	0.400	0.147
1962	Toledo	1966: 2-7-1		1967: 9-1	0.650	0.269
2001	Troy	2005: 4-7		2006: 8-5	0.251	0.126
1961	Tulane	1996: 2-9		1997: 7-4	0.454	0.194
1961	Tulsa	1990: 3-8		1991: 10-2	0.560	0.251
1996	UAB	1999: 5-6		2000: 7-4	0.181	0.138
1961	UCLA	1968: 3-7		1969: 8-1-1	0.550	0.211
1973	UL Lafayette	1981: 1-9-1		1982: 7-3-1	0.546	0.219
1994	UL Monroe	2003: 1-11		2004: 5-6	0.372	0.168
1978	UNLV	1982: 3-8		1983: 7-4	0.363	0.208
1961	USC	1961: 4-5-1		1962: 11-0	0.550	0.161
1961	Utah	1968: 3-7		1969: 8-2	0.500	0.200
1961	Utah St	1966: 4-6		1967: 7-2-1	0.350	0.139
1961	UTEP	1964: 0-8-2		1965: 8-3	0.627	0.180
1961	Vanderbilt	1990: 1-10		1991: 5-6	0.364	0.179
1961	Virginia	1960: 0-10		1961: 4-6	0.400	0.174
1961	Virginia Tech	1992: 2-8-1		1993: 9-3	0.523	0.155
1961	Wake Forest	1978: 1-10		1979: 8-4	0.576	0.218
1961	Washington	1969: 1-9		1970: 6-4	0.500	0.184
1961	Washington St	2000: 4-7		2001: 10-2	0.469	0.245
1961	West Virginia	2001: 3-8		2002: 9-4	0.419	0.218
2007	Western Kentucky	-		-	-	-
1962	Western Michigan	1975, 1996, 2004: 1-10, 2-9, 1-10		1976, 1997, 2005: 7-4, 8-3, 7-4	0.545	0.247
1961	Wisconsin	1992: 5-6		1993: 10-1-1	0.420	0.172
1961	Wyoming	1975: 2-9		1976: 8-4	0.485	0.189

Usually a best turnaround season doesn’t lead to more improvement, of the 118 applicable turnaround seasons, 79  schools (67%) experienced a decline in their records the next season.

Also 10 schools fell apart after their best turnaround, with their school’s greatest collapse in the past 50 years.

It’s interesting that June Jones was responsible for “best” turnarounds at two schools (Hawaii 1999, and SMU 2009), and both within his first two seasons at the schools.


Listed below are all the schools that have had their best turnaround season (last 50 seasons) equal a gain of at least .600 in winning percentage.

School	+W Pct	From	To
Hawaii	0.692	1998: 0-12	1999: 9-4
Notre Dame	0.678	1963: 2-7	1964: 9-1
Indiana	0.668	1966: 1-8-1	1967: 9-2
South Carolina	0.667	1999: 0-11	2000: 8-4
Toledo	0.650	1966: 2-7-1	1967: 9-1
Miami (OH)	0.636	1976: 3-8	1977: 10-1
Houston	0.633	1975: 2-8	1976: 10-2
Illinois	0.628	1962: 2-7	1963: 8-1-1
UTEP	0.627	1964: 0-8-2	1965: 8-3
Florida	0.622	1979: 0-10-1	1980: 8-4
Central Florida	0.615	2004: 0-11	2005: 8-5
San Jose St	0.606	1985: 2-8-1	1986: 10-2

Listed below are the schools that have had the best average gain in winning percentage, during seasons in which they improved their records from the previous season.  In short, it indicates schools that on average have sudden turnarounds.

Since	School	Avg Impv
2000	Connecticut	0.309
1996	Central Florida	0.303
1962	Toledo	0.269
1961	Illinois	0.253
1961	Tulsa	0.251
1974	Hawaii	0.248
1962	Western Michigan	0.247
1961	Washington St	0.245
1962	Miami (OH)	0.236
1961	Rice	0.233
1961	Colorado	0.233

Collapses

Legend: Since (Year the school joined the FBS level (current stint), or the default 50 years at the FBS level (1961)), W Pct- (One season decline in winning percentage), Avg Dec (Average decline in winning percentage during a season of improvement)

Since	School	From		To	-W Pct	Avg Dec
1961	Air Force	1973: 6-4		1974: 2-9	-0.418	-0.159
1987	Akron	1993: 5-6		1994: 1-10	-0.364	-0.149
1961	Alabama	1999: 10-3		2000: 3-8	-0.496	-0.190
1961	Arizona	1968: 8-3		1969: 3-7	-0.427	-0.180
1961	Arizona St	1975: 12-0		1976: 4-7	-0.636	-0.199
1961	Arkansas	1989: 10-2		1990: 3-8	-0.560	-0.182
1990	Arkansas St	1999: 4-7		2000: 1-10	-0.273	-0.160
1961	Army	1972: 6-4		1973: 0-10	-0.600	-0.204
1961	Auburn	1997: 10-3		1998: 3-8	-0.496	-0.209
1975	Ball St	2008: 12-2		2009: 2-10	-0.690	-0.203
1961	Baylor	1980: 10-2		1981: 5-6	-0.378	-0.180
1996	Boise St	2006: 13-0		2007: 10-3	-0.231	-0.142
1961	Boston College	1977: 6-5		1978: 0-11	-0.545	-0.186
1962	Bowling Green St	1985: 11-1		1986: 5-6	-0.462	-0.165
1999	Buffalo	2009: 5-7		2010: 2-10	-0.250	-0.171
1961	BYU	2001: 12-2		2002: 5-7	-0.440	-0.186
1961	California	1991: 10-2		1992: 4-7	-0.469	-0.171
1996	Central Florida	1998: 9-2		1999: 4-7	-0.454	-0.299
1975	Central Michigan	2009: 12-2		2010: 3-9	-0.607	-0.196
1961	Cincinnati	2009: 12-1		2010: 4-8	-0.590	-0.205
1961	Clemson	1974: 7-4		1975: 2-9	-0.454	-0.165
1961	Colorado	1961: 9-2		1962: 2-8	-0.618	-0.193
1961	Colorado St	1980: 6-4-1		1981: 0-12	-0.591	-0.205
2000	Connecticut	2004: 8-4		2005: 5-6	-0.212	-0.117
1961	Duke	1994: 8-4		1995: 3-8	-0.394	-0.146
1965	East Carolina	1983: 7-4		1984: 2-9	-0.545	-0.228
1975	Eastern Michigan	1989: 7-3-1		1990: 2-9	-0.500	-0.191
1961	Florida	1960: 9-2		1961: 4-5-1	-0.368	-0.176
2004	Florida Atlantic	2004: 9-3		2005: 2-9	-0.568	-0.213
2004	Florida Intl	2005: 5-6		2006: 0-12	-0.455	-0.311
Since	School	From		To	-W Pct	Avg Dec
1961	Florida St	1972: 7-4		1973: 0-11	-0.636	-0.138
1969	Fresno St	1977: 9-2		1978: 3-8	-0.545	-0.173
1961	Georgia	1976, 1992: 10-2		1977, 1993: 5-6	-0.378	-0.168
1961	Georgia Tech	1966: 9-2		1967: 4-6	-0.418	-0.211
1974	Hawaii	1999: 9-4		2000: 3-9	-0.442	-0.187
1961	Houston	1990: 10-1		1991: 4-7	-0.545	-0.243
1996	Idaho	2000: 5-6		2001: 1-10	-0.364	-0.174
1961	Illinois	1960: 5-4		1961: 0-9	-0.556	-0.181
1961	Indiana	1994: 6-5		1995: 2-9	-0.363	-0.178
1961	Iowa	1991: 10-1-1		1992: 5-7	-0.458	-0.186
1961	Iowa St	1978: 8-4		1979: 3-8	-0.394	-0.150
1961	Kansas	1968: 9-2		1969: 1-9	-0.718	-0.191
1961	Kansas St	2003: 11-4		2004: 4-7	-0.369	-0.154
1962	Kent St	1988: 5-6		1989: 0-11	-0.455	-0.214
1961	Kentucky	1977: 10-1		1978: 4-6-1	-0.500	-0.178
1988	Louisiana Tech	1999: 8-3		2000: 3-9	-0.477	-0.353
1962	Louisville	1990: 10-1-1		1991: 2-9	-0.693	-0.233
1961	LSU	1997: 9-3		1998: 4-7	-0.386	-0.176
1997	Marshall	1999: 13-0		2000: 8-5	-0.385	-0.193
1961	Maryland	2008: 8-5		2009: 2-10	-0.448	-0.202
1961	Memphis	2005: 7-5		2006: 2-10	-0.416	-0.172
1961	Miami (FL)	1974: 6-5		1975: 2-8	-0.345	-0.153
1962	Miami (OH)	1975: 11-1		1976: 3-8	-0.644	-0.227
1961	Michigan	1964: 9-1		1965: 4-6	-0.500	-0.162
1961	Michigan St	1966: 9-0-1		1967: 3-7	-0.650	-0.201
1999	Mid Tennessee St	2001: 8-3		2002: 4-8	-0.394	-0.228
1961	Minnesota	1962: 6-2-1		1963: 3-6	-0.389	-0.172
1961	Mississippi	1986: 8-3-1		1987: 3-8	-0.435	-0.179
1961	Mississippi St	1994, 2000: 8-4		1995, 2001: 3-8	-0.394	-0.204
1961	Missouri	1970: 5-6		1971: 1-10	-0.364	-0.141
Since	School	From		To	-W Pct	Avg Dec
1961	Navy	1963: 9-2		1964: 3-6-1	-0.468	-0.172
1961	Nebraska	2001: 11-2		2002: 7-7	-0.346	-0.133
1992	Nevada	1996: 9-3		1997: 5-6	-0.295	-0.159
1961	New Mexico	1964: 9-2		1965: 3-7	-0.518	-0.182
1961	New Mexico St	2004: 5-6		2005: 0-12	-0.455	-0.169
1961	North Carolina	1972: 11-1		1973: 4-7	-0.553	-0.203
1961	North Carolina St	1994: 9-3		1995: 3-8	-0.477	-0.172
1995	North Texas	2004: 7-5		2005: 2-9	-0.401	-0.136
1968	Northern Illinois	1983: 10-2		1984: 4-6-1	-0.424	-0.184
1961	Northwestern	1971: 7-4		1972: 2-9	-0.454	-0.160
1961	Notre Dame	2006: 10-3		2007: 3-9	-0.519	-0.183
1962	Ohio	1964: 5-4-1		1965: 0-10	-0.550	-0.223
1961	Ohio St	1998: 11-1		1999: 6-6	-0.417	-0.161
1961	Oklahoma	1964: 6-4-1		1965: 3-7	-0.291	-0.183
1961	Oklahoma St	1988: 10-2		1989: 4-7	-0.469	-0.208
1961	Oregon	1980: 6-3-2		1981: 2-9	-0.454	-0.205
1961	Oregon St	2000: 11-1		2001: 5-6	-0.462	-0.155
1961	Penn St	2002: 9-4		2003: 3-9	-0.442	-0.211
1961	Pittsburgh	1963: 9-1		1964: 3-5-2	-0.500	-0.207
1961	Purdue	1969: 8-2		1970: 4-6	-0.400	-0.138
1961	Rice	2008: 10-3		2009: 2-10	-0.602	-0.207
1961	Rutgers	1961: 9-0		1962: 5-5	-0.500	-0.196
1969	San Diego St	1977: 10-1		1978: 4-7	-0.545	-0.207
1961	San Jose St	1987: 10-2		1988: 4-8	-0.500	-0.191
1961	SMU	1966, 1968: 8-3		1967, 1969: 3-7	-0.427	-0.175
1961	South Carolina	1965: 5-5		1966: 1-9	-0.400	-0.181
2000	South Florida	2003: 7-4		2004: 4-7	-0.272	-0.177
1963	Southern Miss	1975: 7-4		1976: 2-9	-0.454	-0.182
1961	Stanford	2001: 9-3		2002: 2-9	-0.568	-0.187
1961	Syracuse	2001: 10-3		2002: 4-8	-0.436	-0.161
Since	School	From		To	-W Pct	Avg Dec
1961	TCU	1991: 7-4		1992: 2-8-1	-0.409	-0.189
1971	Temple	1979: 10-2		1980: 4-7	-0.469	-0.189
1961	Tennessee	1987: 10-2-1		1988: 5-6	-0.353	-0.146
1961	Texas	2009: 13-1		2010: 5-7	-0.512	-0.187
1961	Texas A&M	1967: 7-4		1968: 3-7	-0.336	-0.158
1961	Texas Tech	1989: 9-3		1990: 4-7	-0.386	-0.169
1962	Toledo	1971: 12-0		1972: 6-5	-0.455	-0.221
2001	Troy	2001: 7-4		2002: 4-8	-0.303	-0.163
1961	Tulane	1998: 12-0		1999: 3-8	-0.727	-0.203
1961	Tulsa	1991: 10-2		1992: 4-7	-0.469	-0.219
1996	UAB	2005: 5-6		2006: 3-9	-0.205	-0.116
1961	UCLA	1988: 10-2		1989: 3-7-1	-0.515	-0.220
1973	UL Lafayette	1980: 7-4		1981: 1-9-1	-0.500	-0.204
1994	UL Monroe	1999: 5-6		2000: 1-10	-0.364	-0.147
1978	UNLV	1994: 7-5		1995: 2-9	-0.401	-0.213
1961	USC	1990: 8-4-1		1991: 3-8	-0.381	-0.173
1961	Utah	1964: 9-2		1965: 3-7	-0.518	-0.246
1961	Utah St	1965, 1968: 8-2, 7-3		1966, 1969: 4-6, 3-7	-0.400	-0.171
1961	UTEP	1988: 10-3		1989: 2-10	-0.602	-0.165
1961	Vanderbilt	1982: 8-4		1983: 2-9	-0.485	-0.161
1961	Virginia	1968: 7-3		1969: 3-7	-0.400	-0.153
1961	Virginia Tech	1986: 9-2-1		1987: 2-9	-0.610	-0.168
1961	Wake Forest	1992: 8-4		1993: 2-9	-0.485	-0.188
1961	Washington	1972: 8-3		1973: 2-9	-0.545	-0.184
1961	Washington St	1997: 10-2		1998: 3-8	-0.560	-0.199
1961	West Virginia	1962: 8-2		1963: 4-6	-0.400	-0.200
2007	Western Kentucky	2007: 7-5		2008: 2-10	-0.417	-0.139
1962	Western Michigan	1995: 7-4		1996: 2-9	-0.454	-0.167
1961	Wisconsin	1966: 3-6-1		1967: 0-9-1	-0.300	-0.154
1961	Wyoming	1999: 7-4		2000: 1-10	-0.545	-0.204

Usually a worst collapse season doesn’t lead to more decline.    Of the 120 applicable worst collapse seasons, 93 schools (78%) improved their records the next season.

Also 13 schools bounced back from their worst collapse, with their school’s best turnaround in the past 50 years.

Listed below are all the schools that have had their worst collapse (last 50 seasons) equal a decline of at least .600 in winning percentage.

School	-W Pct	From	To
Tulane	-0.727	1998: 12-0	1999: 3-8
Kansas	-0.718	1968: 9-2	1969: 1-9
Louisville	-0.693	1990: 10-1-1	1991: 2-9
Ball St	-0.690	2008: 12-2	2009: 2-10
Michigan St	-0.650	1966: 9-0-1	1967: 3-7
Miami (OH)	-0.644	1975: 11-1	1976: 3-8
Arizona St	-0.636	1975: 12-0	1976: 4-7
Florida St	-0.636	1972: 7-4	1973: 0-11
Colorado	-0.618	1961: 9-2	1962: 2-8
Virginia Tech	-0.610	1986: 9-2-1	1987: 2-9
Central Michigan	-0.607	2009: 12-2	2010: 3-9
Rice	-0.602	2008: 10-3	2009: 2-10
UTEP	-0.602	1988: 10-3	1989: 2-10
Army	-0.600	1972: 6-4	1973: 0-10

Listed below are the schools that have had the worst average decline in winning percentage, during seasons in which their records declined from the previous season.  In short, it indicates schools that on average have sudden collapses.

Since	School	Avg Dec
1988	Louisiana Tech	-0.353
2004	Florida Intl	-0.311
1996	Central Florida	-0.299
1961	Utah	-0.246
1961	Houston	-0.243
1962	Louisville	-0.233
1965	East Carolina	-0.228
1999	Mid Tennessee St	-0.228
1962	Miami (OH)	-0.227
1962	Ohio	-0.223

Central Florida and Miami (OH) made both the top ten lists of best average gain, and worst average decline.

Reference: Sports-Reference/College Football